after the debate he cut -- could data five points. carter seemed to have a consistent advantage although the final debate changed everything. no obama is showing a lead over romney the pollsters say finding the right sample can be tricky. >> we know from ex polls republican respond less from new or -- news organizations and democrat. >> gallop had michael dukakis leading by 17 points but lost by 17.5%. he was tied with clinton in october although he one. one pollster questions the assumption made from today's polls. >> they assume you have the same high level of african-american, latino, yo ung people from 2008. >> david axelrod said polls are widely different in the methodologies so to think they are all wrong. but this is a close race. as we have always predicted. >> the race is not over. it can go back and forth 34 times. met romney half's to create the moment of. >> in the past races were the lead was cut or flipped it is roughly 5% and some cases it was the debate that moved the nidal. lou: our congressional correspondent. thank